SCOTTISH LABOUR MARKET UPDATES

FEBRUARY 2010

This bulletin is designed for busy people who want to know where to find recent reports and news on the labour market in Scotland, but don’t have time for extensive research.  Here are some highlights of recent publications to interest staff who advise graduates. 

Aberdeen City and Shire Economic Future

http://www.acsef.co.uk/

This site provides regular updates on key statistics for Aberdeen City and Shire. The most recent updates include statistics on employment by major occupation in 2008-9 and the employment of migrant workers by nationality in 2008-9.

Aberdeenshire Labour Market Bulletin

http://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/statistics/economic/labour.asp

This site provides a summary of the latest unemployment rates and numbers for Aberdeenshire.  The latest statistics show that at March 2009 the local unemployment rate remained very low at 1.4%, the lowest of all Scottish Local Authorities.
The rate for Scotland also rose over the period to 3.9%, compared with the UK (4%).

Alliance of Sector Skills Councils

http://www.sscalliance.org/

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->LMI – Scottish sector profiles form part of a series of Scottish industry sector profiles, examining sector characteristics, recruitment (including the level of qualifications required) and work force development (including skills gaps) http://www.sscalliance.org/Nations/Scotland/Scotland_2009LMIProfiles.aspx

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->ASSC has published The Scottish Skills Landscape.  www.fssc.org.uk/the_scottish_skills_landscape.pdf This report maps the organisations which create Scotland’s learning strategy and deliver learning opportunities for individuals and employers.  It gives contact details of organisations and a brief description of their role and service provision. The list includes Sector Skills Councils, Skills Development Scotland, the Scottish Qualifications Authority, the Scottish Funding Council, Jobcentre Plus, Scotland’s Colleges, Futureskills Scotland, Scottish Enterprise, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, the Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework and the Education and Lifelong Learning Ministry of the Scottish Government.

Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary, November 2009

http://www.strath.ac.uk/media/departments/economics/fairse/Latest-Fraser-of-Allander-Economic-Commentary.pdf

This economic commentary, while not specific to the graduate labour market, gives an up to date analysis of the Scottish economy and includes labour market information.  This edition predicts that “the Scottish recovery may be weaker than in the UK … The bias in the structure of the Scottish economy towards the public sector – 22% of GVA against 18% in the UK – means that the base for expansion is smaller here…….We remain concerned that Scottish manufacturing has the size, diversity and capability to take full advantage of a lower exchange rate and the recovery of global demand……..Finally, if the two main Scottish banks, key beneficiaries of taxpayer funded support, are less willing to lend because of the need to rebuild their balance sheets to stabilise and raise their share price, then the Scottish economy may recover more slowly for this reason..”

Predictions for unemployment levels in Scotland were “7.6% in 2009, 9.2% in 2010, 8.7% in 2011 and 7.7% in 2012.”

The report tracks the decline in economic activity sector by sector and compares this with equivalent figures for the UK:

“Manufacturing GVA has fallen by -12.37% during the recession, which interestingly is slightly less than the fall of -13.81% in UK manufacturing.  Dating the start of the recession in construction as 2008q2 in Scotland and 2008q1 in the UK, output in the industry has fallen by -13.24% and -13.73%, respectively.

“Within services, the main sectoral drivers of contraction in the second quarter were hotels & catering, transport & communication, financial services and retail & wholesale.  Activity in hotels & catering fell by -3.3%, compared to a contraction of -1.2% in the sector in the UK.

GVA in transport & communication services fell by -1.4%, a little better than the -1.8% contraction experienced in the UK. Retail & wholesale GVA contracted by -0.4%, a little more than the -0.3% fall in the sector in the UK. But financial services contracted by 1% in Scotland compared to a rise of 0.2% in the sector in the UK.”

Special features of this edition include articles on “The defence industry in Scotland” and “Devolved immigration policy: will it work in Scotland?”    Key points in these reports:

Defence sector

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“The contribution of military employment has fallen over time and more so in Scotland than in the UK as a whole.”

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“5,100 employees are graduates, almost one-third (31.5%) of the total workforce. This high skill level is reflected in industry wages which are around 34% above the Scottish average.”  [2006 survey by ADS, an industry body representing the Aerospace, Defence and Security industries.] 

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“Employment estimates show only the direct jobs supported by military expenditure.”  Fraser of Allander research on BAE Systems Surface Ships showed that “every one job in Glasgow was estimated to support a further 0.68 of a job elsewhere in Scotland.”

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“Recent years have seen Scotland performing strongly against the UK shipbuilding industry. … Scotland’s share of the UK shipbuilding sector rose from 22% to 33% between 2002/07 and Scottish Government figures show that its overall contribution to Scottish GVA rose from 0.29% to 0.58% in the same period.”  [Figures derived from “Profile of Scottish Shipbuilding Sector”, Scottish Government, 2009]

Immigration

“There is nothing in the UK points-based system that will make it easier for the Scottish Government to deliver on its promise of reversing Scotland’s population decline. There is nothing in it that will attract people to Scotland. The Government’s electoral promise to reduce immigration to the UK will also reduce immigration to Scotland. It is somewhat surprising that the UK Government praises the Canadian and Australian immigration systems yet at the same times ignores the fact that regionality is a cornerstone of both. Scottish specificity could easily be built in through bonus points or lower thresholds for those who agree to live, work and stay in Scotland for a minimum period of time. Or the responsibility for immigration could be transferred to the Scottish Government along the lines of the Canada-Quebec Accord.”

General Teaching Council for Scotland

The Employment Survey of 2008-9 Probationer Teachers was conducted in October 2009 with a response rate of 48.4%.   http://www.gtcs.org.uk/News/employment-survey-2008-2009.aspx   Key facts:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->§  <!--[endif]-->Probationers with full-time permanent employment contracts: 20.2%.[30.6% in Oct ‘07-8]

<!--[if !supportLists]-->§  <!--[endif]-->Probationers with part-time permanent employment contracts: 3.2%. [2.8% in Oct ‘07-8]

<!--[if !supportLists]-->§  <!--[endif]-->Probationers with full-time temporary employment contracts:15.3%. [16.1% in Oct ‘07-8]

<!--[if !supportLists]-->§  <!--[endif]-->Probationers with part-time temporary employment contracts:7.6%. [5.5% in Oct ‘07-8]

<!--[if !supportLists]-->§  <!--[endif]-->Probationers with full-time supply employment contracts: 4.4%. [N/a for 2007-8]

<!--[if !supportLists]-->§  <!--[endif]-->Probationers with part-time supply employment contracts: 5.8%. [N/a for 2007-8]

<!--[if !supportLists]-->§  <!--[endif]-->Probationers not in employment: 27.5%. [ 21.0% in Oct ‘07-8]

Office for National Statistics

Two recent ONS reports are of interest for the Scottish labour market:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->1.     <!--[endif]--> Labour Market Statistics: Scotland is based on the Labour Force Survey for Scotland data at October 2009.http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsscot1109.pdf. Some interesting tables analyse the local labour market indicators to unitary authority level and further breakdowns by parliamentary constituencies (UK and Scottish).

Key findings:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“The trend in the employment rate is decreasing and the rate in the latest period is significantly lower than a year ago. The trend in the unemployment rate is increasing, and the latest rate is significantly higher than a year ago.”

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->Unemployment rate for Scotland, July to September 2009: 7.2% [+ 2.5% on 2008 figure]

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->Local indicators are published only up to March 2009, but overall trends are likely to have continued.  The lowest rates of unemployment were in Aberdeenshire [2.4%] and Orkney [2.5%] and the highest rates in Glasgow [8%] and North Ayrshire [8.1%].

<!--[if !supportLists]-->2.     <!--[endif]-->Scottish Corporate Sector Statistics 2009

This report “provides information on enterprises operating in Scotland. The tables include information on businesses’ employment and turnover and are broken down into various groupings including industry, company size, local authority area, and country of ownership.”  The latest figures relate to March 2009.  http://www.researchonline.org.uk/fskills/search/download.do?ref=B14083

Key facts:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->The total number of private sector enterprises in Scotland was 291,380 as at March 2009 (a 3.3% increase since March 2008).

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->The number of small and medium enterprises in Scotland was 289,065 as at March 2009 (a 3.3% increase since March 2008).

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->SMEs accounted for 99.2% of enterprises and 52.8% of employment.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->Total employment in private sector enterprises (registered and unregistered) was 2 million (2.2% increase over the year).

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->Large enterprises (250+ employees) accounted for over 50% of the total increase in employment, with the total employment among small and medium firms also increasing over the period (2.2% and 1.4% respectively).

Scottish Funding Council

A Skills Committee Newsletter is published on the SFC website at http://www.sfc.ac.uk/skills/SkillsCommitteeResources/SkillsNewsletters/SkillsCommitteeNewsletterJanuary2010.aspx.  The purpose of the Skills Committee is:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“collecting, monitoring and evaluating the evidence on the skills needs in Scotland and the supply of and demand for further and higher education;

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“advising on how improvements in meeting skills needs can be made through the Council’s funding, regulation and support for colleges and universities.”

Scottish Government

Statistics on Attainment in HE and Destinations of Leavers, 2007-8 are analysed in a report dated December 2009.  http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2009/12/08122427

Attainment of qualifications includes HNC/D holders, but destinations data refer only to degree holders.  Key facts:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->66.8 % of graduates were in permanent or temporary UK employment six months after completing their course. 18.9% were in further study or training. 78.5% of those in permanent UK employment were in graduate level occupations.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->68.7% of Scots postgraduate and first degree graduates were in graduate level jobs in Scotland or engaged in further study or training six months after completing their course. This figure is used as a proxy indicator in 'Scotland Performs' [key economic indicators of Scotland’s success]. This figure fell by 1.6% from 70.3% in 2007.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->92% of Scots qualifiers in permanent employment worked in Scotland.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->The proportion of graduates in permanent employment in Scotland decreased from 81% in 2006-07 to 80.7% in 2007-08.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->51.1% of qualifiers in permanent UK employment were employed in the public administration, education and health sectors.

Creative Industries, Creative Workers and the Creative Economy: a review of selected recent literature provides estimates of the turnover, employment levels, enterprise structure and contributions of the creative industries in Scotland.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/289922/0088836.pdf

A report on Teachers in Scotland, 2009 gives numbers of teachers and support staff in publicly funded schools in Scotland at September 2009.  http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/293703/0090773.pdf

Teacher vacancies and probationer allocations [June 2009] is based on an annual census at February 2009 and the allocation of probationers at June 2009.  http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/275780/0082858.pdf    Key facts:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“The number of vacancies had decreased [to 372] from 607 in 2008, and is considerably lower than in recent years.”

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->The highest vacancy rates were for primary teachers in Aberdeenshire and secondary teachers in Argyll & Bute.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->At June 2009 “86 % of probationers were allocated to their first or second choice authorities.”

A report on Public Sector Employment in Scotland records the situation as at September 2009.  http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/296934/0092381.pdf   Key facts:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->In quarter 3 (Q3) 2009, there were 612,900 people employed in the public sector.  This includes employment in local government, core Scottish Government, Scottish Government Agencies, Non-Ministerial Departments and devolved public bodies in Scotland as well as employment in UK Government Departments and UK wide public bodies with a presence in Scotland.  It includes The Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group, which are classified as public corporations.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->There were 1,907,600 people employed in the private sector in Scotland.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->Total public sector employment has increased by 84,700 (16%) since Q3 1999 and increased by 36,700 (6.4%) since Q3 2008.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->Total public sector employment currently accounts for 24.3% of total employment in Scotland. This has increased from 22.8% in Q3 1999 and 22.5% in Q3 2008.  This was an increase of 38,400 (6.7%) since the previous year and an increase of 87,400 (16.6%) since 1999. The large increase over the year was caused by the re-classification of the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group as public corporations.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->Local government staff accounted for 44.6% of the total and NHS staff for 26.5%

In October 2009 the Scottish Government produced its Economic Recovery Plan Update.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/289487/0088559.pdf   This assesses the impact of the recession on Scotland and outlines the Scottish Government’s plans for “supporting jobs and our communities; strengthening Scotland’s education and skills; and investing in innovation and the industries of the future.”   Key points:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“The Government places a particular focus on a number of key sectors: Universities, Creative Industries, Energy, Financial and Business Services, Food and Drink, Life Sciences and Tourism. These sectors have high-growth potential and the capacity to boost productivity.”

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“Third Sector Resilience Fund … will provide financial assistance to Third Sector organisations who have seen increased demand for their services during recession.”

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“A blueprint to create at least 16,000 renewable energy jobs over the next decade.  The Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Scottish Enterprise, Highlands and Islands Enterprise and the Scottish Funding Council have launched the Environmental and Clean Technologies Action Plan. Environmental and clean technologies have the potential to support tens of thousands of new Scottish jobs.”

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“The Government is spending almost £3.8 billion on capital investment in the financial year 2009-10, including acceleration of £293 million in capital investment into this year. This spending is expected to provide a significant stimulus to the construction industry at a time when private sector demand has fallen.” 

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“Local Authorities are investing £90 million to accelerate a range of capital spending programmes spread across Scotland.”

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“The £5 million Innovation Fund will support and sustain the artistic community.”

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“The ScotAction programme is a major package of measures to help those who are unemployed gain employment, to help employers – particularly in key sectors – develop the skills in their workforce that are vital for economic recovery and to help people facing redundancy find new jobs.”

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“The Future Jobs Fund, a key element of the Department for Work and Pensions Young Persons’ Guarantee initiative, provides jobs for six months for people aged 18-24 who are approaching one year’s unemployment. A wide range of Scottish organisations were successful in bidding for funding to create over 5,000 jobs up to March 2011. Successful bidders include the Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations; a number of local authorities, including North and South Lanarkshire, Glasgow City Council, Angus and Dundee; and others such as the Scottish Wildlife Trust, Third Sector Hebrides and Raploch Urban Regeneration Company.”

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“An additional 3,150 places on Training for Work…now from the three months unemployment stage.”

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->Additional funding to support graduates into employment is being used by the Association of Graduate Careers Advisory Service for workshops across Scotland to provide advice and help to graduates seeking employment.”

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->“In response to the crisis in the financial markets the Scottish Government has established a Finance Sector Jobs Taskforce to coordinate efforts across Scotland… to ensure maximum levels of employment were retained within the financial services industry while focusing on understanding what the needs of the industry will be as it emerges from the current crisis.”

The Strategy for the Financial Services Industry in Scotland: 2009 Annual Report

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/05/27091345/6 This report lists achievements against planned activity in Year 4 of a five year strategy.  It outlines achievements in the combined efforts of the Scottish Government and the financial services sector in three areas:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->Strengthening the world-class workforce;

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·         <!--[endif]-->Building the industry’s profile within and beyond Scotland, by influencing, marketing and

communicating effectively;

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·